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"Hoge zonne-activiteit doet Aarde afkoelen"

Geplaatst op 07-10-2010 om 17u17 door Bert Carrein - 4900 keer gelezen
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Een toename van zonne-activiteit doet de Aarde afkoelen, zegt een nieuwe studie die gepubliceerd werd in het vakablad 'Nature'. De claim zal het klimaatdebat ongetwijfeld opnieuw doen oplaaien, al waarschuwen wetenschappers meteen dat de ontdekking geen lange-termijnargument is voor klimaatsceptici. Wel integendeel.

Het onderzoek is gebaseerd op gegevens van een satelliet die de energie-output van de zon registreerde en gooit een aantal bestaande opvattingen over de relatie tusen de zon en de opwarming van onze planeet overhoop. De resultaten focussen op een momentopname tussen 2004 en 2007 en zullen ongetwijfeld worden ingezet door degenen die nog steeds geloven dat de invloed van de mens op de stijgende temperatuur op Aarde overschat wordt.

Wat brachten de gegevens nu precies aan het licht? De satellietdata zeggen dat, toen de zonne-activiteit op het einde van een elfjarige cyclus afnam, er méér licht en warmte de Aarde bereikten, in plaats van minder. Mogelijk werd er door conventionele klimaatmodellen een overdreven belang gehecht aan de impact die onze zon had op het smelten van ijskappen en het opdrogen van rivieren tijdens die periode. En als er tijdens periodes van minder activiteit méér warmte komt, is het best denkbaar dat we een koelere periode op Aarde krijgen wanneer de cyclus een periode van meer zonne-activiteit bereikt, zo menen de wetenschappers.

Hoewel deze theorie de argumenten van klimaatsceptici op korte termijn lijkt te ondersteunen, zegt een lange-termijnanalyse net het omgekeerde. De ontdekkingen bewijzen eens te meer dat global warming méér is dan een natuurlijk, cyclisch fenomeen. Want de voorbije eeuw is de zonne-activiteit toegenomen - en volgens de theorie van de onderzoekers zou het hier dus frisser moeten zijn. Toch zijn de temperaturen globaal gezien de hoogte in gegaan.

Professor Joanna Haigh van het Imperial College in Londen leidde het onderzoek. Zij zegt: "De resultaten stellen alles in vraag wat we meenden te weten over de invloed van de zon op ons klimaat. Maar verdere research is nodig. Ons onderzoek omspande slechts drie jaar, het is mogelijk dat die een uitzondering op de regel vormden."

Gerust is Haigh er evenwel niet in. "Indien we bevestiging krijgen van de huidige resultaten, betekent het dat we de invloed van de zon niet onderschat hebben, maar overschat", verklaart ze. "Klimaatsceptici hebben er naar mijn mening geen argument bij. Ons onderzoek bewijst gewoon dat we nog niet zoveel over de invloed van de zon afweten."

Professor Sir Brian Hoskins van het Grantham-instituut voor Kilmaatverandering zegt: "We weten dat het klimaat zowel door menselijke activiteit als door natuurkrachten wordt beïnvloed. Dit onderzoek verbetert ons begrip over de manier waarop de zon ons klimaat mee bepaalt. Studies als deze helpen ons begrijpen hoe het klimaat verandert, en hoe we onze planeet het beste kunnen beschermen."

Bron: http://www.hln.be

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